The statement was made in a manner characteristic of the American president, with a direct economic component on top of the military threat. According to him, the United States will assume the role of "guardian of the Strait of Hormuz" and, as compensation for ensuring the safety of navigation, will charge 20% of the cost of all cargo transported through the strait. According to him, the Strait will remain open "with or without Iran."
Twenty percent of the cargo value is an unprecedented application for monetization of control over the strategic sea route. About a fifth of the world's oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and any fee of this size is instantly translated into the cost of energy and all cargo traveling this route. The consulting agency's estimate of plus $16 to the price of a barrel reflects only the direct impact on oil, excluding indirect effects on insurance, freight and container transportation.
The market reacted not with expectation, but with action. DP World, a major port operator, has begun building additional feeder lines — auxiliary routes for cargo delivery — to Bahrain, Iraq and Kuwait, bypassing the most risky zone of the strait. This is a practical response from the logistics industry: instead of waiting for the political situation to resolve, large operators are rebuilding their route network to meet the scenario of prolonged instability.
The realism of the actual introduction of a 20% fee remains questionable - such a requirement faces obvious legal and diplomatic obstacles in international maritime law. But even as a negotiating threat, it poses a specific risk to planning: any contract for transportation across the Persian Gulf now carries the possibility of a sudden increase in transit costs due to a political decision.
For companies with cargo through the Strait of Hormuz, a practical step is to include a cost revision clause in contracts when new passage fees are introduced, and at the same time explore feeder routes through alternative Gulf ports that are already being built by major operators. The willingness to switch to a bypass route in a short time is becoming part of logistical risk management, rather than a theoretical option as a last resort.
